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Budget Pacing and Forecasting

Objective​

Prevent underdelivery and overspend while preserving profitable segments.

Pacing Formula​

pace = actual spend to date / planned spend to date

Interpretation:

  • < 0.9 underpacing
  • 0.9-1.1 on pace
  • > 1.1 overpacing

Forecast Inputs​

  • Last 28-day CPA or ROAS by campaign tier
  • Seasonality and promo calendar
  • Conversion lag assumptions

Corrective Actions​

  • Underpacing: expand query coverage, raise bids on efficient tiers
  • Overpacing: tighten match types, reduce low-quality segments, cap weak campaigns

QA​

  • Pacing report refreshed at least twice per week
  • Forecast assumptions logged with date and owner

Next Step​

Return to the module overview and continue with the next lesson in sequence.